Glass half full or half empty? Probably a bit of both - as one of my wine suppliers put it > either way there's room for more wine!
There are two main drivers for the slump in price: on the supply side non-OPEC producers (principally the US and Canada) have sharply increase production (think fracking); on the demand side there is economic weakness in many developed nations (Europe, Japan, China).
The supply side factor is probably the dominant one so there's reason not to read the falling price as indicating catastrophic demand shrinkage as a result of economic woes. Indeed Christine Lagarde recently suggested that the oil price weakness could add 0.8% to GDP growth for many advanced economies.
All in all what we are seeing is a transfer of wealth from oil producers to oil consumers.
Of course, none of this helps the greening of our energy supply.
Jottings from SW Surrey. This used to be mainly about energy but now I've retired it's just an old man's rant. From 23 June 2016 'til 12 December 2019 Brexit dominated but that is now a lost cause. So, I will continue to point out the stupidities of government when I'm so minded; but you may also find the odd post on climate change, on popular science or on genealogy - particularly my own family.
Monday, 22 December 2014
Saturday, 20 December 2014
"Giant Battery"
Great to see another energy storage facility actually kick off. I've blogged a few times on the critical need for bulk storage as back-up for intermittent sources and now there is to be a new one actually linked into the network. The Edie report doesn't say anything about the storage technology being utilised but judging from the project application form it's relatively standard litium-ion batteries that will be used. So I guess that really the only innovation is the size. 'Tis one to watch.
Climate Change - a Threat Multiplier
That's the claim of Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti as reported by Building for Change. And it's difficult to argue with - climate change is likely to increase the incidence of humanitarian crises exacerbating the likelihood of conflict (think water wars, for instance). Of course, we also have our own internal multpliers - daft politicians who blunder into stupid, ill-thought out and unwinnable wars in the likes of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Domestic Concentrated Solar
I've recently come across this site advertising a domestic scale concentrated solar hot water system. There's a suggestion that this is the first domestic concentrated solar system on the (US) market. The suppliers claim the increased efficiency over flat plate or evacuated tube systems gives payback up to 3 years earlier, under US conditions. I'm not sure exactly what their methodology is, and I have no desire to do any number crunching myself. However, I have one comment: our own flat plate system is more than adequate for our needs so a more efficient system would only produce our requirements more quickly which makes me think that in our case, if we were trying to choose a system right now, the deciding factor would be capital cost.
Tuesday, 2 December 2014
In Praise of Radio 3
In last weekend's Sunday Times Culture section there is an excellent article on Radio 3 by Bryan Appleyard. I sometimes find myself taking exception to Appleyard's writings but in this case he's pretty much spot on. The target, in general terms, is the dumming down of broadcasting and the transmission of cultural content driven by the populist stance of philistinic politicians and "managers". Two of the former singled out by Appleyard are Ed Vaizey (a Classic FM listener) and Tom Watson ("Radio 3...is becoming a niche station"). As Appleyard pithily points out, Radio 3 was established by the Attlee government (as "The Third Programme") in the conviction that nothing was too good for the working man. If anything it is Classic FM - a purveyor of "these you have loved" and not much more - that is the niche station. Radio 3 is much, much more. I won't steal any more of Appleyard's essay - just urge you to read it.
Tuesday, 25 November 2014
The Redhill Aerodrome Case
This may seem way "off piste" so I must explain the context. I chair our Parish Council Planning Committee and, the parish being located in the Metropolitan Green Belt, decisions about a goodly number of planning application hinge upon the potential effects upon the Green Belt. The bringing into force of the National Planning Policy Framework has resulted in many applicants arguing that, in effect, Green Belt protection is now lessened and that much more notice should be taken of a presumption in favour of sustainable development.
The Appeal Court judgement in the Redhill Aerodrome case has been cited in an application that is about to come before us and is a blow in favour of continued protection of the Green Belt.
The judgement hinged on what might appear to be something of an abstruse point - the meaning of the words "any other harm" in paragraph 88 of the NPPF (in the context of "very special circumstances" existing). It had been argued that these words should be interpreted as meaning "any other harm to the Green Belt" rather than "any other harm that is relevant for planning purposes". The Appeal Court judgement comes down on the latter interpretation essentially retaining the interpretation of the guidance previously available through PPG2. This is very good news.
What is also good news in my view is the last sentence of paragraph 35 of the judgement which reads "Thus, far from there being any indication that placing the presumption in favour of sustainable development at the heart of the Framework is intended to effect a change in Green Belt policy, there is a clear statement to the contrary".
Three cheers for the Appeal Court.
The Appeal Court judgement in the Redhill Aerodrome case has been cited in an application that is about to come before us and is a blow in favour of continued protection of the Green Belt.
The judgement hinged on what might appear to be something of an abstruse point - the meaning of the words "any other harm" in paragraph 88 of the NPPF (in the context of "very special circumstances" existing). It had been argued that these words should be interpreted as meaning "any other harm to the Green Belt" rather than "any other harm that is relevant for planning purposes". The Appeal Court judgement comes down on the latter interpretation essentially retaining the interpretation of the guidance previously available through PPG2. This is very good news.
What is also good news in my view is the last sentence of paragraph 35 of the judgement which reads "Thus, far from there being any indication that placing the presumption in favour of sustainable development at the heart of the Framework is intended to effect a change in Green Belt policy, there is a clear statement to the contrary".
Three cheers for the Appeal Court.
Saturday, 22 November 2014
Sunday 19 October
Hmm! No sooner had I published my previous post than I came across this: 24% of UK electricity produced by wind. Food for thought?
Germany - Too Successful?
A number of ex-colleagues gathered together the other day - sadly for a funeral - but the talk soon turned to the state of the electricity market, or I should say markets because we strayed into the issue of Germany building new lignite plants. With renewables (some 23% or so of German power production) often base-loading during the day (solar) or in periods of reasonable wind there is a need for back-up generation. Nuclear can't do that and gas in Germany is expensive so lignite plants are kept running as spinning reserve. The result? Germany's CO2 emissions are actually on the rise.This is not a pretty picture; the German's seem to have dug something of a hole for themselves. No to nuclear. No to CCS. No to gas. Is the big German experiment to base an electricity system on renewables about to fail?
Tuesday, 4 November 2014
The Dreaded Transmission Charges
From way back when I was involved in modelling power station revenues and the like I recall the issue of transmission charges being a significant problem for remote northern-located stations. I must admit that I've rather taken my eye off this particular ball so I was interested to note an article recently suggesting that Scottish Power were not going to enter Longannet PS into the first capacity auction because of "disproportionate transmission charging penalties". This is despite the fact that the latest transmission charging methodology should actually reduce (but not eliminate) the penalty faced by remote stations.
INEOS and Shale
One of my last tasks under the highfalutin' banner of Bawden Consulting Ltd has been to audit a shale gas model being prepared for INEOS.
Now I see that the company has bought a 51% interest in an exploration block in Scotland (which happens to include land around INEOS' Grangemouth refinery and petrochemicals complex). What I find interesting is INEOS' intention to share some of the proceeds with home- and land-owners and communties. It expects to distribute 4% of revenues to home- and land-owners and a further 2% to communities. It claims that the total distributed could amount to as much as £2.5bn over the lifetime of the project.
That's one way to reduce the inevitable anti-shale sentiment.
INEOS is a non-operating partner. The operator is Dart Energy who hold the remaining 49% interest.
Now I see that the company has bought a 51% interest in an exploration block in Scotland (which happens to include land around INEOS' Grangemouth refinery and petrochemicals complex). What I find interesting is INEOS' intention to share some of the proceeds with home- and land-owners and communties. It expects to distribute 4% of revenues to home- and land-owners and a further 2% to communities. It claims that the total distributed could amount to as much as £2.5bn over the lifetime of the project.
That's one way to reduce the inevitable anti-shale sentiment.
INEOS is a non-operating partner. The operator is Dart Energy who hold the remaining 49% interest.
Wednesday, 27 August 2014
Wot - No Understudy?
We recently attended a performance of Anthony and Cleopatra at the Globe for a mere £42 each (plus travel costs, plus food and drink, plus programme). Eve Best (who I admire as a good strong Shakespearean actress) was unfortunately indisposed - sort of thing that can't be helped. But I was amazed that there was no understudy. Instead the actress who should have played Charmian read the part of Cleopatra and another actress read the part of Charmian. This severely compromised the production - especially when players were close to corpsing at times. Come on Globe - surely you can mirror other theatres and manage to properly cover for inevitable absences? Actresses floating around the stage clutching a wad of paper is just not good enough. Pity the Sale of Goods Act does not cover theatrical productions because what was delivered here was decidedly not fit for purpose.
Thursday, 17 July 2014
White Rose Gets NER300 Funding
Regular readers will know that I was a tad miffed that the White Rose CCS project got the nod over the one in which I was peripherally involved. However, now that it is going ahead it's good news that the project has captured substantial NER300 funding to top up the support coming from HMG. While there must still be some doubts about the southern North Sea being the best target area for storage I do hope that this project really does prove the potential for CCS.
Energy Policy - Excellent Nick Butler Blog Post
All - please look at Nick Butler's recent post on UK energy policy (or lack of). It should be required reading for anyone interested in the future of UK energy - that's you and me!
More Pragmatism
There's more on mitigation is a recent Building4Change post. The ICE has recently reported on the state of the county's infrastructure and its ability to cope with extreme weather conditions.
To lift a quote:
“It is becoming clear that extreme weather events will become more frequent, and it is time that factors such as availability, resilience and the ‘domino effect’ across the networks when one network fails – as we saw recently when our flood defences were overwhelmed and this in turn disrupted transport, energy, water and waste networks – are rooted into the criteria used to make decisions on which projects go ahead so new infrastructure is more ‘future proofed’.”
Seems like sound advice to me.
To lift a quote:
“It is becoming clear that extreme weather events will become more frequent, and it is time that factors such as availability, resilience and the ‘domino effect’ across the networks when one network fails – as we saw recently when our flood defences were overwhelmed and this in turn disrupted transport, energy, water and waste networks – are rooted into the criteria used to make decisions on which projects go ahead so new infrastructure is more ‘future proofed’.”
Seems like sound advice to me.
Climate Change vs Conservation Area
Question - what should have priority, an individual's attempt to do a little to tackle climate change or the aesthetics of a conservation area? Well, there's no one answer to that. There will be times when perhaps aesthetics win; in other situations the "damage" rendered by modern installations will be minimal. As a parish councillor in a parish with 3 conservation areas I know that the argument can become heated on both sides!
My good friend Paula Owen has blogged on just such a case. I urge you to read Paula's blog because, judging by the photos of the site in question, and assuming that the narrative is substantially accurate, I think there is something of an injustice being perpetrated here.
My good friend Paula Owen has blogged on just such a case. I urge you to read Paula's blog because, judging by the photos of the site in question, and assuming that the narrative is substantially accurate, I think there is something of an injustice being perpetrated here.
Friday, 11 July 2014
Pickles Pickled!
If you're an avid reader of my intermittent posts you'll know that I have little regard for one Eric Pickles MP. Well, for once, he's on the receiving end. His various interventions into renewable energy planning decisions have roused the ire of many in the industry. Now, the High Court has overturned one of his decisions to reject an on-shore wind farm planning application. I don't know the details of the particular project but isn't refreshig to see decisions being made in lower tiers of government (in this case the local planning authority) being upheld rather than sat upon by Planet Pickles?
A Bit of Pragmatism
In an interview in the Grauniad last month Sir Mark Walport makes some telling remarks about the need to focus more on climate change mitigation. It's worth a read.
Capacity Margin to Fall to as Low as 2%?
"It would never have happened in my day".
The National Grid last month published two tenders - for demand side load shedding and supply side capacity retention - all aimed at "keeping the lights on" given that Ofgem's capacity assessment indicated the potential for the capacity margin to fall to as low as 2% in 2015/16.
This, to me, is another example of the scramble to cope with HMG's hopeless mismanagement of the power sector.
The National Grid last month published two tenders - for demand side load shedding and supply side capacity retention - all aimed at "keeping the lights on" given that Ofgem's capacity assessment indicated the potential for the capacity margin to fall to as low as 2% in 2015/16.
This, to me, is another example of the scramble to cope with HMG's hopeless mismanagement of the power sector.
Fiddle; Rome; Burning - Make a Well Known Phrase
As regular readers will know - I am once again well behind the news. However, I couldn't help but let forth an electronic cry of despair at the juxtaposition in the Queen's Speech of a levy on plastic carrier bags (delayed until after the general election!!) and the introduction of "allowable solutions" (aka buying your way out) for zero carbon housing. This Edie report says it all.
Pretty-looking Wind Turbine
The Liam F1 Urban Wind Turbine looks really pretty but does it do what it says on the tin? From my feeble knowledge of physics I thought that Archimedes screw-based solutions tend to be less efficient than other configurations. Perhaps someone out there could enlighten me?
Tuesday, 3 June 2014
Energy Resource Black Hole
A recent report from the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University paints a bleak picture for the UK's natural energy resources. It suggests that the UK reserves are just 5.2 years of oil, 4.2 years of coal and 3 years of gas. Not-with-standing the fact that the odd pinch of salt is required when reviewing these figures they should, none-the-less be concentrating policy makers' minds. The thought of increasing reliance on the likes of Russia and Qatar is not a pleasant one.
Monday, 26 May 2014
Shell: Carbon Bubble "Alarmist"
A recent edie post covers Shell's claim that its fossil fuel reserves won't become stranded as a result of environmental legislation. Much as I believe decarbonisation is important I suspect that Shell will be proved correct until such time as the global economics of energy production turn around.
Thursday, 8 May 2014
Storage Breakthrough? Don't Hold Your Breath
In a recent post in his ever informative blog Nick Butler reports on "real progress" being made in energy storage. He then cites two pieces of research utilising in one case quinones and in the other azobenzenes and claims that these suggest that "real progress is now being made and that major breakthroughs are close". I'm afraid that I'm too much of a cheapskate to subscribe to Nature or to Nature Chemistry but having read the abstracts, which are available to all at the links above, I am inclined to reach for a large pinch of salt. I do have the advantage of having experienced the trials and tribulations of National Power/Innogy's attempts to commercialise the Regenesys product over fifteen or so years ago. This flow battery system even reach prototype stage - with a large facility being constructed at Little Barford Power Station - although this was never fully commissioned. The two processes highlighted by Nick are way behind Regenesys in development terms so I really don't think that "major developments are close". To give Nick his due, he provides an excellent analysis of why effective storage is imorant and he does heavily caveat his optimism in the closing sentances of his post. Let's hope that there genuinely is a major breakthrough in the offing although I, for one, will not be holding my breath.
Tuesday, 29 April 2014
When is Horizontal Drilling not Trespass?
Despite what I said the other day about the seeming lack of a "shale gas revolution" the recent announcement by HMG about potential changes to legislation to allow drilling beneath land owned by others does demonstate that some parts of government are trying to push exploration for shale hydrocarbons forward. Currently it seems that legal precedent gives ownership rights as far down as one can define "strata" as this briefing from the Hugh James practice explains. As the HJ piece says - the final balance between land-owners' rights and energy exploration is an interesting one.
Localism?
I missed this when it first hit the singing wire but thought it worth highlighting as it is yet more evidence of Planet Pickles' grasp of the principles of localism. According to edie the gravitational pull of Planet Pickles has pulled in 33 wind projects, or 93% of wind capacity currently at appeal. It's worth reading Dale Vince's comments in this piece: "We've worked diligently through the entire planning process, passed every test, including a public enquiry - only to have our application refused by a man that knows nothing on the subject". Quite.
Friday, 25 April 2014
Russia - Ukraine - Gas
There's been quite a lot of chatter recently about the potential effect of the Ukraine crisis on imports of Russian gas. According to a recent report from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies about 30% of Europe's gas demand is supplied by Russia and about half of this comes via Ukraine. In a speech he made on 21 March 2014 Russian Prime Minister Medvedev suggested that Ukraine might owe Russia some $16bn. Of this, about $2bn is owed to Gazprom. The Institute paper argues that this sort of debt led to Gazprom cutting off deliveries to Ukrainian customers previously and the subsequent diversion of transit gas bound for Europe to Ukrainian consumers caused a severe tightening in European supplies. It is the threat of similar action this time around that is exercising many minds.
The Institue paper points out that the situation is less severe than in the past because the Nord Stream pipeline (Russia - Germany via a sub-Baltic Sea route) is now complete. The paper also makes soothing comments about other pipeline projects which it suggests would make transit of Russian gas through Ukraine unnecessary post 2020.
Of course, none of this alleviates the fundamental problem of over-dependence on Russia. As Nick Butler has pointed out in a recent blog post, by 2030 under certain scenarios European dependence on Russian gas could be a staggering 75%. The Russians may be desperate for foreign currency (aka dollars) but just how desperate?
If you believe George Osborne we don't have to worry: "We need to cut our energy costs. We're going to do this by investing in new sources of energy: new nuclear power, renewables, and a shale gas revolution" (my italics). One wonders whether he has been captured by the gravitational field of Planet Pickles. Someone needs to tell George that nuclear ain't cheap and it takes an inordinately long time to build; that renewables ain't cheap and many suffer from intermittency, seasonal fluctuation and diurnal fluctuation; and that there is little sign of any shale gas revolution and virtually no sign of the government trying to start one.
'Tis time for some sensible energy planning, coupled with the guts to deliver what will inevitably be a difficult policy.
The Institue paper points out that the situation is less severe than in the past because the Nord Stream pipeline (Russia - Germany via a sub-Baltic Sea route) is now complete. The paper also makes soothing comments about other pipeline projects which it suggests would make transit of Russian gas through Ukraine unnecessary post 2020.
Of course, none of this alleviates the fundamental problem of over-dependence on Russia. As Nick Butler has pointed out in a recent blog post, by 2030 under certain scenarios European dependence on Russian gas could be a staggering 75%. The Russians may be desperate for foreign currency (aka dollars) but just how desperate?
If you believe George Osborne we don't have to worry: "We need to cut our energy costs. We're going to do this by investing in new sources of energy: new nuclear power, renewables, and a shale gas revolution" (my italics). One wonders whether he has been captured by the gravitational field of Planet Pickles. Someone needs to tell George that nuclear ain't cheap and it takes an inordinately long time to build; that renewables ain't cheap and many suffer from intermittency, seasonal fluctuation and diurnal fluctuation; and that there is little sign of any shale gas revolution and virtually no sign of the government trying to start one.
'Tis time for some sensible energy planning, coupled with the guts to deliver what will inevitably be a difficult policy.
Tuesday, 8 April 2014
The BBC and Peaches
Wednesday, 5 March 2014
Fair and Balanced
I recently had a blog post by Dana Nuccitelli pointed out to me - criticising the way the BBC interprets its perceived need to be "fair and balanced". It's worth a read. I won't copy it here - I suggest you just follow the link.
Russia, Ukraine, Europe > Oil and Gas
I have heard a number of people recently warning that Russia could cut off Europe's oil and gas (a third of total Russian gas production goes to Europe) at any time. Well, I guess physically that is true but economically it would be nuts. Russia is heavily dependent upon those sales which is why, I believe, we've not seen any curtailment of the flow and are very unlikely to do so in the near future. Equally, Ukraine appears to understand that the delivery pipes passing through its territory should be left well alone.
What the current furore has pointed up, however, is a rather uncomfortable longer term outlook. Oil and gas currently represent some 70% of Russian exports and account for 50% of all state revenue. But Europe is (slowly - too slowly for some) weaning itself off fossil fuels. If Russia doesn't get other sectors of its economy revved up then in the longer term it really is going to look like a badly wounded bear - and the thought of it acting like one is not a happy one.
What the current furore has pointed up, however, is a rather uncomfortable longer term outlook. Oil and gas currently represent some 70% of Russian exports and account for 50% of all state revenue. But Europe is (slowly - too slowly for some) weaning itself off fossil fuels. If Russia doesn't get other sectors of its economy revved up then in the longer term it really is going to look like a badly wounded bear - and the thought of it acting like one is not a happy one.
Wednesday, 26 February 2014
A New CCS Strategy
Habitues of Random Thoughts will know that I have slightly more than a passing interest in CCS. Well, now I note that the Advanced Power Generation Technology Forum has recently launched what it claims to be a new strategy for CCS development in the UK. I won't claim to have read all 104 pages - I'm not that much of a geek - but I think it's worth pointing any interested reader to the list of some 150 (yes, 150) RD&D recommendations contained within the document.
The major thrust, as one might expect, is to remove uncertanties to make CCS an economically viable process. With this in sight the strategy has as one of its 3 time-specific goals to have 30 C-capture projects across a wide variety of industryial sectors by 2020. This seems to me to be fantastically ambitious considering that we are only just at the FEED stage of the two government-sponsored projects at White Rose and Peterhead. But I guess ambition is a good thing. At least this goal is specific. The other 2 talk in terms of CCS being "routinely used" to different degrees in 2030 and 2050. Hogwash.
To my mind the big issue with CCS is managing the expectations and interfaces between different industrial players across what is always going to be a complicated process chain. This becomes even more complicated if the chain is extended (as I think is very likely) to routinely incorporate EOR. Different players have different appetites for risk, and varying understanding of the risks inherent in other parts of the chain. Apportioning the cross-chain risks will always be one major headache.
The major thrust, as one might expect, is to remove uncertanties to make CCS an economically viable process. With this in sight the strategy has as one of its 3 time-specific goals to have 30 C-capture projects across a wide variety of industryial sectors by 2020. This seems to me to be fantastically ambitious considering that we are only just at the FEED stage of the two government-sponsored projects at White Rose and Peterhead. But I guess ambition is a good thing. At least this goal is specific. The other 2 talk in terms of CCS being "routinely used" to different degrees in 2030 and 2050. Hogwash.
To my mind the big issue with CCS is managing the expectations and interfaces between different industrial players across what is always going to be a complicated process chain. This becomes even more complicated if the chain is extended (as I think is very likely) to routinely incorporate EOR. Different players have different appetites for risk, and varying understanding of the risks inherent in other parts of the chain. Apportioning the cross-chain risks will always be one major headache.
Tuesday, 11 February 2014
Fracking and Planning
I've chuntered on about fracking in this blog a number of times. I thought it might be helpful to put down a few pointers about the planning regime.
First of all - the fracking 'revolution' has been sparked by the development of horizontal drilling. On shore this means that multiple landholdings are likely to be involved in any one fracking site. Drilling without the landowner's consent amounts to trespass so any fracking operation will involve multiple agreements. It is this aspect of the law that has triggered all the noise about purchase of ransom strips etc. Taking such action will ultimately be just a delaying tactic, however - developers have compulsory purchase rights.
Secondly, a developer will require a petroleum exploration licence.
Thirdly, planning permission is required from the Mineral Planning Authority. The MPA is usually the County Council.
Forthly, Environment Agency (yes, them again) permits are required.
Fifthly, the Health and Safety Executive has to be satisfied with the well design and operation plan.
Only when this lot is in place will a developer be granted the consent to drill. Complicated, isn't it?
First of all - the fracking 'revolution' has been sparked by the development of horizontal drilling. On shore this means that multiple landholdings are likely to be involved in any one fracking site. Drilling without the landowner's consent amounts to trespass so any fracking operation will involve multiple agreements. It is this aspect of the law that has triggered all the noise about purchase of ransom strips etc. Taking such action will ultimately be just a delaying tactic, however - developers have compulsory purchase rights.
Secondly, a developer will require a petroleum exploration licence.
Thirdly, planning permission is required from the Mineral Planning Authority. The MPA is usually the County Council.
Forthly, Environment Agency (yes, them again) permits are required.
Fifthly, the Health and Safety Executive has to be satisfied with the well design and operation plan.
Only when this lot is in place will a developer be granted the consent to drill. Complicated, isn't it?
More Hydro
When I were a lad (or when in my younger days I was employed by the CEGB) the received wisdom was that there was little prospect of any new large hydro scheme in the UK. If not turned on its head that view is at least being challenged. Scottish Power is at the early stages of assessing an expansion of its Cruachan site; SSE is looking at a scheme at Coire Glas and has identified another potential site a Balmacaan; and there are plans for an, admittedly, small scheme in Gwynedd.
Does this shoot down my argument about spooking investor sentiment in may previous post? I don't think so - there's no serious money on the table as yet - but it does point up that the generation business remains and "interesting" one.
Does this shoot down my argument about spooking investor sentiment in may previous post? I don't think so - there's no serious money on the table as yet - but it does point up that the generation business remains and "interesting" one.
Another Minister Sniffing the Populist Weed
First it was Miliband, then it was Major, and now Ed Davey has jumped on the populist band wagon. Is there something in the Westminster water that addles the political brain?
Granted, the utilities have done themselves no favours by failing to be completely transparent on costs and prices but politicians, ministers especially, must realise that a secure energy supply is predicated upon a delicate balance between public policy making and the deployment of private capital. Davey's flat-footed intervention caused a fall in utility share prices - particularly that of Centrica - and not surprisingly because all he has done is add further uncertainty to the climate in which these companies operate.
Now, the more uncertain any market is, the less are investors likely to pile in (or at the very least they'll be asking for higher rates of return). The country is in an energy bind and is in need of new and sustained investment. Davey's loose words are no way to encourage that investment.
Granted, the utilities have done themselves no favours by failing to be completely transparent on costs and prices but politicians, ministers especially, must realise that a secure energy supply is predicated upon a delicate balance between public policy making and the deployment of private capital. Davey's flat-footed intervention caused a fall in utility share prices - particularly that of Centrica - and not surprisingly because all he has done is add further uncertainty to the climate in which these companies operate.
Now, the more uncertain any market is, the less are investors likely to pile in (or at the very least they'll be asking for higher rates of return). The country is in an energy bind and is in need of new and sustained investment. Davey's loose words are no way to encourage that investment.
Wednesday, 5 February 2014
The Pietersen thing
I can no longer resist temptation - I have to wade in. What on Earth is the ECB up to? Kevin Pietersen may be infuriating at times but he has been a match and series winner for England and the method of his removal appears to be shambolic at best and utterly incompetent at worst.
Just think about a few of his achievements:
> his century secured England's first Ashes serie win in something like 25 years;
> he was Man of the Tournament when England secured their first global limited overs trophy;
> his average in the 4-0 series win over India that took England to World no 1 position was 106.6;
> his innings in Mumbai started the turnaround from a 1-0 deficit to a series win in India.
He is England's leading run scorer. And he is 33 - a mere stripling.
His performance this time around in Australia was not awe inspiring, granted. But, then again, nor was that of any other player. It was the whole team that misfired - not just KP.
There have been rumblings about dressing-room discord, even rows. What is the captain for; what are the managers for; if not to manage? Now, I like Alastair Cook as a cricketer and opening bat but his captaincy hasn't been of top drawer quality. Somehow, between him and Andy Flower, the England management ball has been dropped.
What really gets up my nose is the manner of the announcement. I have spent a lot of good money in the past heading to Test games (fortunately not to Aus this year - I'm still smarting from 2006/7); I feel let down that no explanation has been given - just a bland press statement.
As an Aussie friend would say - the ECB appears to be "up themselves".
And, finally, isn't this a decision, if it was to be taken at all, one that should have come from the new team director and his assistants?
I fear that the national team is heading for a long bout of mediocrity.
Just think about a few of his achievements:
> his century secured England's first Ashes serie win in something like 25 years;
> he was Man of the Tournament when England secured their first global limited overs trophy;
> his average in the 4-0 series win over India that took England to World no 1 position was 106.6;
> his innings in Mumbai started the turnaround from a 1-0 deficit to a series win in India.
He is England's leading run scorer. And he is 33 - a mere stripling.
His performance this time around in Australia was not awe inspiring, granted. But, then again, nor was that of any other player. It was the whole team that misfired - not just KP.
There have been rumblings about dressing-room discord, even rows. What is the captain for; what are the managers for; if not to manage? Now, I like Alastair Cook as a cricketer and opening bat but his captaincy hasn't been of top drawer quality. Somehow, between him and Andy Flower, the England management ball has been dropped.
What really gets up my nose is the manner of the announcement. I have spent a lot of good money in the past heading to Test games (fortunately not to Aus this year - I'm still smarting from 2006/7); I feel let down that no explanation has been given - just a bland press statement.
As an Aussie friend would say - the ECB appears to be "up themselves".
And, finally, isn't this a decision, if it was to be taken at all, one that should have come from the new team director and his assistants?
I fear that the national team is heading for a long bout of mediocrity.
A CO2 Blip or Start of a Worrying Trend?
DECC has published its final GHG statistics for 2012. The headline is that emissions in that year were 581.2 MtCO2e, up from 563.2 the previous year. Now, we're looking at a potentially very noisy set of data here so extrapolations are dangerous, but looking behind the headline there are a few things to make one pause for thought.
The first is that the UK economy was not growing in 2012 (Business-sourced emission were up less than 1MtCO2e). Now it is. What is all that extra activity going to do to emissions?
Secondly, emissions from the residential sector rose by over 12%, driven largely by an increase in use of gas for heating. Again, this is something which will fluctuate but with the drive for more houses to be built (and they will not be zero-C) the prognosis does not look good to me.
The energy supply sector was up by nearly 6%, due to increased use of coal over gas for electricity generation. This trend will reverse as the old coalers are closed but with each new gas station that is developed there is an inbuilt plateau of long-term emissions pretty much guaranteed. So, it's possibly good news in the short term but not such a jolly story in the medium and long term.
DECC have indulged in a certain amount of back-patting as the above figures confirm that the UK came in under the first C-budget cap. I just worry that the low-hanging fruit have been picked and that emissions control is going to become increasingly difficult.
The first is that the UK economy was not growing in 2012 (Business-sourced emission were up less than 1MtCO2e). Now it is. What is all that extra activity going to do to emissions?
Secondly, emissions from the residential sector rose by over 12%, driven largely by an increase in use of gas for heating. Again, this is something which will fluctuate but with the drive for more houses to be built (and they will not be zero-C) the prognosis does not look good to me.
The energy supply sector was up by nearly 6%, due to increased use of coal over gas for electricity generation. This trend will reverse as the old coalers are closed but with each new gas station that is developed there is an inbuilt plateau of long-term emissions pretty much guaranteed. So, it's possibly good news in the short term but not such a jolly story in the medium and long term.
DECC have indulged in a certain amount of back-patting as the above figures confirm that the UK came in under the first C-budget cap. I just worry that the low-hanging fruit have been picked and that emissions control is going to become increasingly difficult.
Tuesday, 4 February 2014
US Has Competitive Edge
Rod Janssen recently spotted an article by the FT's Pilita Clark picking up on an IEA report suggesting that energy cost differentials will see Europe lose out big time to the US over the next couple of decades. It is undeniable that the differential exists now and is a major headache for EU energy intensive companies, but will it last 20+ years? One of the major factors causing this effect is the fact that the US is decoupled from the international gas market. Hence indigenous shale gas has nowhere to go but the US, so depressing prices. But how long will it be before there are sufficient LNG export terminals to drag US gas prices closer to those in the EU?
I suspect that a lot of the political enthusiasm for UK shale gas is driven by a concentration on production costs not on market price. I can't see a US-style boom happening over here.
I suspect that a lot of the political enthusiasm for UK shale gas is driven by a concentration on production costs not on market price. I can't see a US-style boom happening over here.
Friday, 31 January 2014
Electricity Imports to Grow
The Financial Times today reports a prediction from National Grid that as the capacity margin tightens imports of electricity will continue to grow. Interconnectors currently amount to 3GW capacity (2 with France, 1 with the Netherlands) but there are plans for a further 1GW connection with France and 1 GW with Belgium. Furthemore, there is ongoing development work on possible connections to RoI, Norway and Denmark (and, according to the FT, to Iceland, although I could find no mention of this on NG's website - I guess partly because landfall would be in Scotland). All of this is a few years away as yet and won't make a massive dent in the UK's supply side but it's all indicative of the woeful mess successive govenments have made of our electricity supply policy (indeed, energy policy as a whole). On that latter point, current imports of energy are over 40% and climbing. Scary!
Wednesday, 29 January 2014
Super Solar Bridge
Auntie has recently reported on the opening of Blackfriars Station Solar Bridge. The 6000 sqm of panels are expected to generate some 900 MWh per year - up to half of the station's demand. There's no analysis of how that demand is made up, nor of its time profile so I cannot judge if the array will at any time spill onto the grid. I guess a lot of the station's power requirements are either daytime for offices, shops etc. or are relatively time independent. That makes this installation a pretty sensible one. As for First Capital Connect claiming that passengers will now have "an even more sustainable journey" isn't it sad that someone feels the need to pollute a good story with a load of puffery?
Wednesday, 22 January 2014
Green Deal Green Around the Gills?
Green Deal assessments fell by 21% from November to December last year, the level in the latter being just over 12,000. Is this doom and gloom for the initiative? Some of that fall is probably down to Christmas, and possibly people concentrating on managing their way through the immediate issues arising from our somewhat inclement weather. However, the published figures also show that just 626 households had measures installed and financed by the scheme, although cashback deals now run at over 10,500. It doesn't look good does it?
Whistling in the Wind
Time was when BP's Energy Outlook Report was compulsory reading for me and my colleagues so it was with a sense of nostalgia that I spotted an article about the most recent edition the other day.
This time around there is a dire warning. The report posits that, despite a continuing focus on emissions control from OECD countries, the likely increase in energy consumption from non-OECD states, most of that coming from fossil sources, CO2 emissions in 2035 could be 29% greater than today.
Are we just whistling in the wind?
This time around there is a dire warning. The report posits that, despite a continuing focus on emissions control from OECD countries, the likely increase in energy consumption from non-OECD states, most of that coming from fossil sources, CO2 emissions in 2035 could be 29% greater than today.
Are we just whistling in the wind?
LED Tube to Replace Fluorescent in Seconds
I don't normally reblog but the following from Building4Change speaks for itself. This just seems to me to be a really neat piece of work.
Philips’ InstantFit replacement tube cuts energy use by up to 50%
Lighting company Philips has launched an instant fit LED replacement tube, which uses up to half the energy of linear fluorescent tube lighting.
The InstantFit LED replacement tube requires no re-wiring as it includes a smart electronic design that is compatible with existing drivers, ballasts and sockets. This cuts the time it takes to change from fluorescent to LED tube lighting from more than 20 minutes per fixture to seconds. Philips estimates that the installed base for fluorescent tube lighting today amounts to 12bn (lamp) sockets globally.
Rene van Schooten, chief executive of light sources and electronics at Philips Lighting, said: ‘‘We studied the process for replacing fluorescent tubes with LED technology step by step to tackle those issues that dissuade facility managers and installers from making the switch. We found speed and simplicity were key.”
The product will be available early this year.
Saturday, 18 January 2014
Execution Follow up
Following on from my 5th January post, the New Scientist in no. 2943 reports that an execution in Florida last year, using midazolam and two other drugs resulted in the convicted man enduring "a longer death than is usual". It was also reported that he moved more requently than usual.
Then, just yesterday, I noticed AOL reporting that a man in Ohio took 25 minutes to die after "an experimental combination of drugs" was used.
You will have gathered that I find the concept of capital punishment at the best of times abhorrent but the above I really do think is beyond the pale.
What I really found upsetting, though, were the many nasty and vituperative comments left on AOL. I normally don't read comments posted to news items like this because I know what to expect. This time, however, I stupidly did so. I hope that these comments represent the views of just a small minority because, if not, the world is a worse place than I thought.
Wednesday, 15 January 2014
Greatest Public Interest - Who Decides?
Chris Paton picked up an interesting Grauniad article in his blog yesterday. This notes that a number of historians are considering taking the FCO to court to force them, under the Public Records Act, to release into the public domain thousands of files dating back to the 1840s still held by the department. What caught my eye was the promise from the Government that the records "of the greatest public interest" will be handed over to the National Archives over the next six years. That rather begs the question of who decides what is "of the greatest public interest". Given that one collection is entitled "Birth, death and marriage resisters" one wonders whether genealogy studies feature in the criteria.
Opportunities from Shell Sell-off
The Daily Telegraph today reports that Shell may well be selling-off a stack of North Sea assets. Regular readers of this blog will know that a year or so ago I was peripherally involved in a (sadly failed) bid into the government's CCS competition. The long-term vision of that bid was to dispose of CO2 by using it for enhanced oil recovery from depleted NS fields. One of the key requirements to make the scheme really work was to be able to tap a series of assets in order to be able to maintain a plateau volume of CO2 disposal. (CO2 is "recycled" in the process so the profile going into any single field can be a declining one). So, don't be surprised if a few small, agile down-stream players snap up the Shell assets with a view to an EOR future.
Sunday, 12 January 2014
Congratulations to my Next Door Neighbour
Slightly late in the day - many congratulations to Harriet on being awarded an MBE.
Licence to Trash
There is a short article in the recent BRE "Building4Change" (still hate the title) by Prof Robert Tregay with a very important message. Essentially Tregay is warning that simplistic biodiversity offsetting systems risk becoming "licences to trash" - a particular instance being replacement of ancient woodland by modern planting. Tregay points out that the value of ancient woodlands lies as much in their history as in a simplistic tree count; and their complex ecological systems, including hardly visible soil organisms cannot be easily replicated or replaced. It's worth a read.
Sunday, 5 January 2014
No Anaesthetic, No Execution?
There is a lack of pentobarbital at US prisons (New Scientist, no 2941). This is one of the main anaesthetics used in lethal injections. As a result some states (e.g. Arkansas) are suspending executions until alternatives are found; others are switching to new, untested combinations. Perhaps the US could consider just getting rid of the death penalty instead?
Wednesday, 1 January 2014
Gaia - Great Theory But.......
As ever I'm behind on my reading and have only just managed to look at the 26 October edition of New Scientist which contains an article by Toby Tyrell puporting to test the Gaia hypothesis. Indeed, Tyrell has recently published a book on the subject.
Being late to reading the article reminds me that I didn't pick up James Lovelock's original work until several years after it hit the bookshops. I recall thinking at the time that it was a wonderful theory - appealing to the new-age hippy in me if nothing else (actually that's being mean to Lovelock - it is genuinely a fascinating and well-worked theory). However, I couldn't see any conclusive proof that his hypothesis was correct. Being an idle *** I didn't take that thought any further; and I suspect that there were/are many others in that boat. Tyrell has, however, set out to test Lovelock's main propositions.
To cut a long story short, Tyrell's conclusion is that the Gaia hypothesis is not an accurate picture of how the world works (though he does point to some "mini-Gaias" such as the thermoregulation of the interior of terminte mounds). In some ways this is a great pity - there is something comforting about the thought of a self-regulating world. However, it rather looks as though we shall have to tackle the various environmental issues confronting us on the basis of our world system being very much more fragile that the Gaia hypothesis suggests - it won't just happen!
Being late to reading the article reminds me that I didn't pick up James Lovelock's original work until several years after it hit the bookshops. I recall thinking at the time that it was a wonderful theory - appealing to the new-age hippy in me if nothing else (actually that's being mean to Lovelock - it is genuinely a fascinating and well-worked theory). However, I couldn't see any conclusive proof that his hypothesis was correct. Being an idle *** I didn't take that thought any further; and I suspect that there were/are many others in that boat. Tyrell has, however, set out to test Lovelock's main propositions.
To cut a long story short, Tyrell's conclusion is that the Gaia hypothesis is not an accurate picture of how the world works (though he does point to some "mini-Gaias" such as the thermoregulation of the interior of terminte mounds). In some ways this is a great pity - there is something comforting about the thought of a self-regulating world. However, it rather looks as though we shall have to tackle the various environmental issues confronting us on the basis of our world system being very much more fragile that the Gaia hypothesis suggests - it won't just happen!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)