DECC has published its final GHG statistics for 2012. The headline is that emissions in that year were 581.2 MtCO2e, up from 563.2 the previous year. Now, we're looking at a potentially very noisy set of data here so extrapolations are dangerous, but looking behind the headline there are a few things to make one pause for thought.
The first is that the UK economy was not growing in 2012 (Business-sourced emission were up less than 1MtCO2e). Now it is. What is all that extra activity going to do to emissions?
Secondly, emissions from the residential sector rose by over 12%, driven largely by an increase in use of gas for heating. Again, this is something which will fluctuate but with the drive for more houses to be built (and they will not be zero-C) the prognosis does not look good to me.
The energy supply sector was up by nearly 6%, due to increased use of coal over gas for electricity generation. This trend will reverse as the old coalers are closed but with each new gas station that is developed there is an inbuilt plateau of long-term emissions pretty much guaranteed. So, it's possibly good news in the short term but not such a jolly story in the medium and long term.
DECC have indulged in a certain amount of back-patting as the above figures confirm that the UK came in under the first C-budget cap. I just worry that the low-hanging fruit have been picked and that emissions control is going to become increasingly difficult.
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