I have heard a number of people recently warning that Russia could cut off Europe's oil and gas (a third of total Russian gas production goes to Europe) at any time. Well, I guess physically that is true but economically it would be nuts. Russia is heavily dependent upon those sales which is why, I believe, we've not seen any curtailment of the flow and are very unlikely to do so in the near future. Equally, Ukraine appears to understand that the delivery pipes passing through its territory should be left well alone.
What the current furore has pointed up, however, is a rather uncomfortable longer term outlook. Oil and gas currently represent some 70% of Russian exports and account for 50% of all state revenue. But Europe is (slowly - too slowly for some) weaning itself off fossil fuels. If Russia doesn't get other sectors of its economy revved up then in the longer term it really is going to look like a badly wounded bear - and the thought of it acting like one is not a happy one.
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