So Alistair Buchanan thinks the UK urgently need new gas generators. Why this sudden flurry of angst? There have been pretty good demand forecasting models knocking around the UK for ages. And we've all known about the likely effects of the LCPD for years. Furthermore, the retirement of nuclear plant has been pretty easy to predict. So it's been obvious (and even pointed out in this ill-informed blog) that "something had to be done" to avoid a generation squeeze.
The good old CEGB had plenty of things wrong with it (it employed me, after all), but it did manage to build a reasonable size of plant margin. The privatisation market solution has undoubtedly driven out costs but it would appear that HMG and its advisors have failed to ensure that the right incentives are in place to promote a sensible replacement programme.
So are we going to have a second dash for gas and blow the CO2 emissions targets, or should we be looking forward to a few winters with brown-outs?
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