Wednesday 21 December 2011

EU Crisis and the Paradigm of Loss Model

It has recently been pointed out to me that the EU crisis is playing out along the lines of Elizabeth Kubler Ross's Paradigm of Loss model. This model suggests that there are five stages of grief at a loss: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.
EKR
Well, we've certainly had our fill of denial - a good two years of it! And the recent spats over Cameron's (admittedly mishandled) use of the so-called veto suggest that the anger stage is now in full swing. In many ways Cameron has just replaced Papandreou and Berlusconi as the principle target. However, sooner or later the German fiscal union protagonists and the French nation stage champions must realise that the whole mess is basically a result of them not sorting out that particular dichotomy in the first place. I bet they blame each other first before they eventually get down to some serious bargaining.

As to what the depression stage will look like - heaven help us. And acceptance is going to come with a very different looking Euro Zone. Will it retain all the current members? Possibly. Any country falling out of the Zone will have a particularly hard time. But will the Franco-German big boys be happy to bail out the profligate southerners, potentially accepting the likelihood of ongoing north to south value movement?

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