My few dedicated followers will know that nearly five years ago we installed a PV array on our roof. We were lucky - we just managed to qualify for the original FIT rate, the main aspect of the house is SSW facing and the roof pitch is approximately 40 degrees - not perfect but pretty good. I built a calculator to assess the economics and went with a system that the model suggested should pay back in just under 10 years. So far, returns are just above the calculated rate (not by much) and I am expecting to, indeed, break even during year 9. I'm a pretty happy bunny.
I was struck today by a blog posting from Kieron suggesting that a new system for him was just not economic. I've plugged Kieron's parameters into my model just to get a feel for the most recent FIT rates. My model is set up for the sunny south of England and came back with a not too thrilling break even point in year 17, an IRR of 4.5% and a 25-year NPV of £295. I would not invest against those figures. Poor Kieron is looking at a property in the west of Scotland and I guess he has factored in much reduced incident radiation. He certainly is showing a loss at 20 years into his putative project.
I know that this is only one isolated case but if this is indicative of the generality of current domestic PV economics it would seem that HMG is pricing all but dedicated enthusiasts out of the market.
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