Tuesday 2 October 2012

The Time Constant for CO2 Reporting

Still catching up I picked up edie's short note on CO2 reporting from local authorities (as reported by DECC). The note explains that 97% of local authorities in the UK reported increased emissions between 2009 and 2010, reversing the results from 2008 to 2009. The two main reasons given are increased natural gas usage for space heating because 2010 was a particularly cold year; and the electricity generation fuel mix moving from nuclear to fossil.

There are some important lessons for trend watchers here. Increased space heating could not be put down as a trend on this two-point basis - a longer time series would be required to ascertain any trend (unless someone has a very good, tried and trusted, temperature normalisation tecinique). However, given what we know about retirement of nuclear power stations and the slow progress towards replacements, or any meaningful, reliable renewables, then the second reason given above could be seen as the start of a trend; and a dangerous one.

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