I've recently been flicking through Exxon Mobile's recent publication "Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040". If you're in the energy business you might be encouraged by its findings but environmentalists will be deeply depressed. Here are some of its predictions:
> Global energy demand will be about 30% higher in 2040 compared to 2010. So much for efficiencies, then. And think of some of the consequences!
> Energy demand growth will slow as population growth moderates. Well, it's got to, really, hasn't it?
> OECD countries will see essentially flat energy use. By contrast, non-OECD countries will grow by close to 60%. There has to be a move to greater equality but it's not good news if the developed nations cannot reduce demand through efficiencies.
> Electricity generation will account for more than 40% of global energy consumption. Well, that fits with thoughts about decarbonised grids etc. but there is a CO2 sting in the tail. Wait for it.
> Oil, coal and gas will continues to be the most widely used fuels. Told you!
> Demand for coal will peak and then gradually decline. But what about clean coal technologies?
> Natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal. I can see gas as a stepping stone to cleaner generation etc., but this reads like an end in itself.
> For both both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of supply will come from unconventional sources. Think of shale gas. Well, if you're going to satisfy an increasing demand that is going to be the only way to do it.
> Global energy-related CO2 emissions will grow slowly and level off around 2030. Isn't that a tad late?
All-in-all it's not a pretty sight, although the pessimist/realist in me thinks some of this will come to pass.
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