Tuesday, 10 November 2015

UK Fracking - The Elephants in the Room

While HMG appears desperate to get UK fracking up and running, ostensibly to bridge the upcoming energy gap (coal plant closures from next year and nuclear closures by 2023, North Sea depletion) there are many siren voices warning of all sorts of problems.

Let's consider the "direct" issues:

1) Air pollution - leakage of CH4 from fracking schemes is poorly understood but probably manageable;

2) Waste water - a contentious issue in the US but there regulation is lax. Again, in the UK it should be manageable;

3) Casing leaks - just make them more robust and monitor them;

4) Earthquakes - may happen but likely to be very minor;

5) Underground migration - could be an issue but good prior geological surveys should tell one where not to drill.

And now the elephants. There are two:

1) Time - it will take ten years or so for any meaningful production. That's too late to cover the issues raised at the top of this piece;

2) Combustion emissions - CO2 targets go out of the window if fracking does take off - even if all it does is displace coal. Displacing renewables would be a disaster.

Political inertia and incompetence by parties of all colours have brought us to this sorry pass and now HMG finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Increasing efficiency of use and demand reduction have to be the order of the day. And that will be no easy task.

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