Polio!

I read the other day that 22 cases of suspected polio have been identified in NE Syria. If the civil war wasn't bad enough, allowing a window for a disease that can paralyse children to re-establish itself is tragic. Polio is on the brink of eradication (think of the success with smallpox) and here we have a situation that may allow a wider comeback. This is especially so given that local leaders in NW Pakistan have banned vaccination. Two fronts on which to fight this disease are two fronts too many.

Oral History - Capture It Now

Those of you who know me well (and following this post, the rest of you) will be aware that I've been sporadically capturing my family history over the past few years. In a recent blog post Dick Eastman refers to a statement from an American archives technician that, on average, it takes just 3 generations for a piece of oral family history to be lost unless there is a diligent attempt to preserve it. There are certainly several half-remembered tales attached to my family, some of which I'm sure I'll never fully understand. I think I've solved the mystery of "the woman who ran away with the man from the powder factory" but I've no idea what connection we have to "the waterman from Wapping".

So, my suggestion to you all when you gather for your Christmas celebrations and swap family anecdotes is to write them down as soon as possible. So much in life these days is ephermeral (think of all those deleted emails and tweets) - let's capture what we can.

The Dead Salmon Has It

When Craig Bennett of the University of California stuck a dead salmon in his brain scanner to perform a test run on the machine he got something of a shock - the fish's brain and spinal column were showing signs of neural activity.

This has rather put the cat among the neuroscience pigeons. It has pointed up that many, many research findings in the discupline are fatally flawed by poor technique. As a (lapsed) scientist I find this shocking.

Is it any wonder that scientists face not just a sceptical public but a disbelieving one? Climate change anyone?

Random Thoughts on GM

The fingers have been away from the blog-keyboard for a while - for a variety of reasons including work, covering for an absent colleague, travel, volunteering. This all means that I've rather lost track of some of the exciting things happening out there beyond the boundaries of Commuterland. In my reading to catch up with life I was struck by the kerfuffle that's been going on about the proposal to release GM flies in Spain to tackle olive flies. There's been the usual outcry about meddling with nature when we don't know the potential outcome but that's an argument that could be placed on the doormat of almost every experimental procedure. And there's evidence from seven (yes, seven) years ago that such experiments don't necessarily end in death, doom and disaster. GM bollworms have been "out in the wild" without, apparently, any unexpected problems. Isn't about time we were a little less hysterical about such approaches? GM flies might just be less harmful than the clouds of insecticide that will otherwise be used on those olive trees. It's time to find out.

Some Risks in CCS

Last night over dinner a couple of mates were berating me for not putting finger to keyboard for some time. So, Keith and Ken, this is for you.

The other day a colleague pointed out to me a couple of risks associated with the White Rose CCS project that hadn't occurred to me. The White Rose project itself involves the construction of a new coal-fired plant, alongside the existing Drax PS, equipped with oxyfuel combustion technology. Then there is an entirely separate project headed up by National Grid to build a pipeline out into the North Sea.

Of course, the two project are inextricably linked. What my colleague suggested was that any environmental statement supporting the development will need to adopt the so-called "Rochdale Envelope Principle" (No -I've never heard of it before, either). Under this principle the developers have to assess and present the maximum potential adverse impacts for the whole scheme. My colleague then went on to point out that this adds two new risks to the plethora that already surround CCS projects:

• the risk of increased challenge prompted by presentation of this worst case scenario;
• challenge about whether or not a worst case scenario has actually been disclosed.

As assiduous readers of this blog will know I was periferally involved in one of the unsuccessful projects bidding into the competition. One of the big headaches in putting together the project was clear allocation and management of risk. Of course, there are all the usual ones you expect in any big project - technology risk, financing risk etc., but also some peculiar to a multi-player project of this nature - integration risk being one of the biggest.

Even at the back-end of the project there is a sting in the tail. Eventually, under the EU CCS Directive, risk can be passed to the member state's government but only "if and when all available evidence indicates that stored CO2 will be completely and permanently contained". That is some tall order if you really think about it. The monitoring and maintenance commitment that is implied is not insignificant. Furthermore, even when risk is transferred to the state the operator has to make a financial contribution towards continued monitoring.

One of the big hopes of the project that I was involved in was that it would unlock enhanced oil recovery as a means of offsetting some of the risk-based costs. Neither of the selected pojects will do this and it is difficult to see how a truly independent project with such an aim can get off the ground in the near-, or even medium-term.

Is Major Sniffing The Same Stuff As Milliband?

First it was Ed Milliband wanting to impose an energy price freeze, now John Major has gone even further banging on about a windfall tax. What are these guys on?

Major seems to think the energy suppliers are profiteering - taking exceptional rents. Now, hang on a minute, John. These companies are operating in a market for a couple of undifferentiated products (electricity and gas). The former essentially has its price set by world-traded raw materials and conversion costs and the latter is itself a world traded commodity. So we should not be shocked to see that their offers are very similar. These firms are not going to compete like mad on price - loosing customers hurts the bottom line because they would have to spread their fixed costs over a smaller customer base; and winning customers is expensive. Sure, there's a little jockeying around the edges but they ain't going to rock the boat too hard.

It's true that the barriers to entry into the market are high so, surprise, surprise, we have just 6 major companies operating in this country. This is about the norm for this sort of market. Could they be colluding and taking super-rents? Well, just possibly - price signals are easy to make in this market - but sooner or later someone would break ranks and I think we'd settle back to their returns hitting their cost of capital. And if there is mischief it's not for someone to impose a windfall tax without assembling the evidence. What are the competition authorities for? (And eventually the courts?).

The real shame of all this posturing is the potential for investors to run a mile. Britain is in dire need of new plant and other infrastructure. The sight of governmental meddling is just what shareholders do not want.

This issue is too important for populist grandstanding - our politicians should be big enough to get off their soap boxes and provide the right environment for sustained investment.

What is Ed Miliband Smoking?

So Grommit wants to freeze gas and electricity prices for a couple of years. Good election gambit that.

But he also wants to have a carbon free grid by 2030.

Is he going to do this with more or less the same power market as we have now? 'Cos if he is his first pledge will stifle investment while his second demands it.

Or perhaps the good old CEGB (my old stamping ground) is on its way back. Now there's a thought.