Pictured: Sawley Marina with the UK's last remaining coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, in the background.
The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) annual progress report to the UK Parliament on its net-zero transition is out today (18 July), and it makes for sobering reading.
As has been the case with previous reports, the CCC praises the UK for halving its national emissions since 1990.
But it emphasises that these emissions reductions have largely been driven by reducing coal in the electricity generation and heating mix, replacing it with a mix of renewables, nuclear and gas. Manufacturing has also been offshored, putting emissions within other nations’ boundaries rather than meaningfully reducing them.
Future emissions reductions within the UK need to be far steeper if the nation is to meet its legally binding climate targets, the CCC is warning. And reductions need to be made in sectors whereby the transition will involve more households and workers, including transport, heating, buildings and agriculture.
Progress to date, and existing policy credibility, remains particularly weak in fields including surface transport, where the annual rate of emissions reductions needs to double. The CCC wants to see mandates for manufacturers to make more electric cars and vans coupled with measures to help buyers with upfront costs.
It does not see EVs reaching price parity with ICE vehicles in terms of upfront cost until the late 2020s. Running costs are already lower, but could be decreased further with Government interventions.
In the built environment, the emissions reduction rate needs to triple. Policy has gotten weaker here in recent years due to reduced energy efficiency standards for rented properties, and multiple failed government-led schemes to improve energy efficiency.
Peatland restoration rates and woodland creation rates need to more than double this decade, so these nature-based solutions are ready to draw down carbon in the decades to come. Emissions from agriculture and land use are plateauing, again partly due to stop-start Government schemes.
Acceleration needed
All in all, the CCC has concluded that only one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the UK’s 2030 targets are backed with credible policies that have low delivery risks.
Of the 22 reporting indicators the CCC assesses, only five are on track. There has only been a “slight increase” in credible plans year-on-year and time is of the essence.
Interim CCC chair Professor Piers Forster said: “The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new Government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time. They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.”
The Committee maintains that the costs of delivering net-zero are far outweighed by the risks of inaction, and are not significantly more than simply replacing existing infrastructure as it ages. The transition is priced at 0.5% to 2% of GDP.
Its report makes clear that an orderly net-zero transition will attract international investment, create good jobs, lower bills for homes and businesses. It is also not at odds with energy security.
“It is a way for this Government to serve both the people of today and the people of tomorrow,” Professor Forster said.
A chance to change
Findings in the report relate to the policies enacted over the past 12 months. The CCC has not yet assessed how the UK’s emissions trajectory will change due to interventions made and announced by the new Labour-led Government.
In its first two weeks, the new Government has:
In a media briefing on the report, the CCC’s acting chief executive James Richardson called former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s green policy rollbacks “unhelpful” and “particularly unfortunate” given the strong support for net-zero voiced by predecessors Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
Sunak weakened policies on energy efficiency in rented homes and he low-carbon heat transition in September 2023. He also delayed the ban on new petrol and diesel car and van sales from 2030 to 2025.
This was done under the guise of reducing costs for homes. But the CCC said changes ultimately added costs and risks in the 2030s and beyond.
Sunak additionally stoked fears about renewable energy and nature-based solutions being at odds with food security.
Richardson emphasised that this rhetoric is likely to die down, as there is now “cross-party consensus” in Westminster on the net-zero transition. All Parties included a net-zero target of 2050 or sooner in their manifestoes, bar Reform UK, which only has a handful of MPs. And the Tory MPs that retained their seats are broadly supportive of long-term low-carbon policymaking.
Richardson said the new Government has already shown a willingness to “do things, some of them unpopular”, to decarbonise the energy system.
He called the Government’s target to decarbonise the grid by 2030 “incredibly ambitious” but technically achievable.
“It’s great to see that ambition from Government, it’s exactly the kind of thing we need to get ourselves back on track. But we do need to see a lot of action.”
CCC representatives on the briefing call also noted that Labour is yet to really flesh out its plans to strategically decarbonise heating for heavy industry; make electricity more affordable to encourage the electrification of heat and transport; protect and restore nature; or strategically decarbonise the public sector estate.
On the latter, the previous Government awarded funding to public sector buildings on a competitive, case-by-case basis. The CCC wants more long-term, strategic clarity given.
